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Iran has enough LEU, in the form of 2 to 3 percent LEU and near 20 percent enriched uranium, to produce weapon-grade uranium (WGU) for three nuclear weapons without using any natural uranium as feedstock, a fact that reduces breakout timelines.
This report assesses information in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) quarterly safeguards report for May 31, 2021, Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015), including Iran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The IAEA report is also the first update on the status of Iran’s uranium enrichment program since an attack on the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) on April 11, which caused major damage to the underground enrichment hall’s electricity supply and emergency backup power. 2 The IAEA report reflects apparent significant post-explosion damage to about half of the enriching cascades operating at the time of the power outage. Enriched uranium output also decreased by over half post-explosion.
Highlights and Worst-Case Breakout Estimate