The last deal raised significant alarm around the region, as a cash windfall of billions of dollars resulting from sanctions relief flowed downstream to Tehran’s terrorist proxies, including the Lebanese Hezbollah. This new agreement is estimated to provide Iran with as much as $275 billion in first year sanctions relief, and as much as $1 trillion by the start of 2030, just before most of the restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program expire. Last time, the funding served to support Hezbollah’s conventional military capabilities and buttressed its influence over the Lebanese state. This largesse from Tehran only strengthened the group’s status as the most heavily armed non-state actor in the world. With the expected windfall from the new deal, Hezbollah will be able to leverage Iranian assistance to expand its latest efforts to develop lethal precision-guided munitions (PGMs). The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) views these “game-changing weapons” as a top strategic threat, second only to that from Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Indeed, the expected 2022 nuclear deal will likely herald a new era of PGMs in the Middle East. These weapons are already circulating in the region. And now, with the UN missile embargo on Iran expiring in 2023, per the terms of the 2015 JCPOA, the Islamic Republic will be able to proliferate these PGMs with greater ease and legitimacy.
