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Initial Report Nov 24, 2021, UPDATED January 21, 8:00pm
Russia is setting conditions to conduct military operations against Ukraine and/or in Belarus in the coming weeks or months. The Russian Federation has positioned military forces around Ukraine’s border and near the border with Belarus able to initiate offensive operations on very short notice with very little warning. Russian officials and media outlets have been setting conditions in the information space to support such operations. This document is not intended as a forecast or an assessment of the likelihood of any such Russian activities, all of which are also consistent with Russian non-military lines of effort against Ukraine, Belarus, the United States, and NATO.
Click here to read ISW and the Critical Threat Project’s reports on the Russian military buildup near and potential invasion of Ukraine. These reports unpack Putin’s likely calculations and use them to forecast his strategy. They provide critical insight for US and Western leaders and policymakers.
Click here to read ISW’s running assessment of Russia’s military activity near Belarus and Ukraine. This document is regularly updated.
Click here to see a list of ISW’s Belarus updates. Launched near-daily in late 2020 and early 2021, these reports provide moment-to-moment insight into Russia’s efforts to integrate the Belarusian military and subordinate the Belarusian state.