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UKRAINE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT

Key Takeaways
Russian forces are unlikely to launch offensive operations to encircle Kyiv larger than the scattered Russian attacks observed northwest of Kyiv targeting Irpin on March 14 and Guta-Mezhyhirska on March 15 within the coming week but may launch further tactical attacks.
Russian forces continued to assault Mariupol from the east and west.
Russian forces did not conduct major offensive operations toward northeastern Kyiv in the past 24 hours.
Russian forces attempting to encircle Kharkiv continue to face supply shortages, particularly regarding ammunition.
The Russian military falsely claimed to have captured the entirety of Kherson Oblast on March 15 but did not conduct any major operations toward either Zaporizhya or Mykolayiv.
Russia is unlikely to launch an unsupported amphibious operation against Odesa until Russian forces secure a ground line of communication to the city, but Russian Naval Infantry retain the capability to conduct a landing along the Black Sea coast.

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